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Understanding the ‘New Normal’—The Challenge of Secular Stagnation | An Economy That Works, Briefing Paper No 1









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Understanding the ‘New Normal’—The Challenge of Secular Stagnation | An Economy That Works, Briefing Paper No 1

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This first in our series of briefing papers on building An Economy That Works explores the underlying phenomenon of ‘secular stagnation’ – a long-term decline in the rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The paper examines the evidence, explores the causes and discusses the implications of what some now call the ‘new normal’ | Keywords: Productivity Puzzle, Secular Stagnation, Post-Growth Economics, An Economy That Works
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Understanding the ‘New Normal’—The Challenge of Secular Stagnation | An Economy That Works,RundownPaper No 1 Skip to content Limits To Growth APPG on Limits to Growth Menu ABOUT The Debate PUBLICATIONS Briefing: Understanding the ‘New Normal’ Briefing: Precautionary Principle Response: Spring Budget 2017 Review: Limits Revisited LINKS Basic Literature Related APPGs EVENTS NEWS RESEARCH Posted on July 10, 2018July 10, 2018 by Linda GessnerUnderstanding the ‘New Normal’—The Challenge of Secular Stagnation | An Economy That Works,RundownPaper No 1 Tim Jackson July 2018 Download: Briefing Paper This first in our series of rundown papers on towers An Economy That Works explores the underlying miracle of ‘secular stagnation’ – a long-term ripen in the rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The paper examines the evidence, explores the causes and discusses the implications of what some now undeniability the ‘new normal’. It finds that: trend growth rates in GDP wideness the OECD declined from a peak of 4% per year in the mid-1960s to a little over 1% half a century later; trend growth rates in labour productivity declined from 4% per year to 0.6% per year over the same period; in the UK, there is a well-spoken rise and fall pattern in labour productivity growth since the early 20th Century, with a peak in 1967 and a sustained fall since that time; over the last five years, trend labour productivity growth has remained unelevated 0.3%, lower than at any time since records began in the mid 19th Century. Perhaps most surprisingly, this wringer suggests that the rise of digital technologies has neither reversed nor plane halted this long-term ripen in labour productivity growth in the UK. The paper identifies four potential causes of the decline: an increasing price volatility in vital economic resources such as transplanted oil; a ripen in the underlying quality of such resources – as measured for instance by the energy required to pericope them and make then useful to society; a structural shift in wide economies yonder from mining and manufacturing and towards services; and changes in the structure and organisation of the financial sector. The first three could help to stimulate the transition to a sustainable economy: services are typically less rabble-rousing than mining and manufacturing activities and a ripen in the use of transplanted oil could contribute to our stat reduction targets. The final item on the list is troubling for two reasons. Firstly, there is vestige that these shifts in financial tracery have unsalaried to higher levels of inequality within wide economies. Secondly, the changes themselves were motivated by the desire to stimulate economic growth. In other words, the very policies designed to prevent economic instability have ended up contributing to it. Faced with this conundrum, it is well-spoken that ‘more of the same’ will not unhook an economy that works for everyone. This paper argues that in order to make progress it is useful to re-frame four fundamental foundations on which the economy is built: enterprise, work, investment and money. Though it is vastitude the telescopic of this paper to elaborate on these foundations in detail, we propose here the wholesale directions of travel, in which we frame: enterprise as a form of service work as a vital ways of participation in society investment as a transferral to the future; and money as a social good. Future rundown papers in this series will develop these themes in increasingly detail. Download The Policy Paper can be downloaded in  pdf (3MB). About the Series An Economy That Works | Ten years without the financial crisis, sluggish growth, unpleasing labour productivity and persistent inequalities are creating huge uncertainties for the future of wide economies such as the UK. Under these conditions, it is challenging to meet the investment needs associated with improving people’s health and wellbeing or to honour our obligations under the Paris Agreement on climate change. The implications for social and political instability are profound. Is a return to upper levels of GDP growth the only way to meet these combined challenges? Is such a return plane possible? A series of rundown papers from the All-Party Parliamentary Group on the Limits to Growth aims to explore these questions and to create the space for a vital conversation aimed at towers An Economy That Works – for everyone.     Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Categoriespublication TagsAn Economy That Works, Post-Growth, Productivity Puzzle, Secular Stagnation Post navigation Previous PostPrevious Briefing: Precautionary PrincipleNext PostNext The end of growth? Transcript of debate w/ Federico Demaria, Graeme Maxton, Jørgen Randers and Kate Raworth Search for: Search Tweets by @appg_L2G REGISTERED OFFICE Caroline Lucas MP House of Commons, London, SW1A 0AA Tel: 020 7219 7025 Email: caroline.lucas.mp@parliament.uk The APPG’s full parliamentary register can be found here. Public Enquiry Point The Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity acts as the secretariat for the APPG on Limits to Growth. Centre for Understanding Sustainable Prosperity University of Surrey Guildford GU2 7XH Email: appg@cusp.ac.uk APPG on Twitter APPG on Twitter CUSP APPG RSS feed Privacy Notice This site uses cookies: Find out more.OK, thanks.